Predictive Modeling at Beyond Maps.org

Predictive modeling is the process of using statistical relationships between mappable phenomenon and the locations of known points - in this case archaeological sites. Predictive models can be powerful tools in testing archaeological hypotheses, guiding archaeological fieldwork, and to help land use planners determine what measures to take to avert destruction of unidscovered archaeological sites in the most efficient and therefore cost-effective ways.

Predictive modeling is not new to archaeology. For many years archaeologists have been making overlay maps to study how factors such as terrain, soils, and geology might have affected settlement decisions in ancient times. The advent of geographic information systems (GIS) has presented many opportunities to bring powerful tools and resources to archaeolgical predictive modeling.

For example, the study of prehistoric and protohistoric settlement patterns often centers around the distribution of potential resources. Many environmental factors that mimic or influenced the distribution of resources in prehistoric times, such as geology, landcover, and habitat distribution, have been mapped accurately in GIS by public institutions. Due to interpretationsof the Freedom of Information Act , many public institutions have made it policy to maintain web sites to freely distribute these datasets which can be repurposed for archaeology.

In addition, ArcGIS by Environmental Science Research Institute provides archaeologists with a tremendously powerful spatially-based statistical analysis tool. With ArcGIS in the hands of an experienced researcher, analysis operations that years ago would have been impossibly time-intensive can now be done with greater detail and accuracy than ever before.

Click here to download the paper, "A Predictive Probabilistic Model of Village Site Location Within the Santa Ynez Valley, California" by Mark Lynton Neal, 2007. Be aware that this is a 13.4mb file and therefore may take a relatively long time to download.

Following is the abstract and the bibliography from that paper:

ABSTRACT

A Predictive Probabilistic Model of Village Site Location
Within the Santa Ynez Valley, California

by

Mark Lynton Neal

A predictive probabilistic model is created of archaeological sites in the Santa Ynez River watershed.   Twenty-one ethnohistorically documented Chumash village sites are selected as training points in order to assure that all sites are contemporaneous and of similar function.   Various working hypotheses based on anthropological theory and past research are constructed regarding potential environmental influences on site location.   A GIS is created of datasets constructed to provide data to test those hypotheses.   Based on the results of those tests, it is determined that villages within the study area were located so as to be within 800 meters of perennial water, within 200 meters of ecotones, in locations with less than 15º ground slope, and in regions of relatively greater habitat diversity.   A map is produced showing relative probability of regions to contain village sites in five ranks ranging from “Low” to “High.”   The highest two sensitivity ranks combined correctly predict 80.9% of the test sites within 23.1% of the study area.   The highest rank predicts 71.4% of the test sites within 6.6% of the study area.

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Our work is in consultation, research, teaching, and communication in the areas of Geographic Information Systems, archaeology, cultural resource protection and management, and organizational dynamics.

We have helped civic, tribal, and private organizations effectively translate real world data into geographic information systems in areas such as cultural resource management, historic property survey, and archaeological investigation. We have provided support to government and private sector cultural resource management specialists through consultation regarding writing specifications of work to be performed, design of projects to facilitate total accounting of final data, and merging data into existing municipal GIS.

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The use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) has received widespread attention over the past 10 years as a powerful new tool for Cultural Resource Management (CRM). It is not surprising that the use of GIS in Cultural Resource Management has grown exponentially. GIS is a natural fit for the various disciplines that are used in CRM, For example, archaeological and historic architecture surveys produce large amounts of spatially-distributed data and GIS provides an efficient and effective way to manage, analyze, and present that data. In addition, CRM companies are increasingly expected to deliver their reports and data in a form that allows for it to be easily assimilated into existing corporate and municipal Geographic Information Systems. Companies that understand GIS and can “speak GIS” to their clients have a competitive edge in winning contracts.

The Problem

Unfortunately, for typical CRM organizations, there are significant obstacles preventing them from making the most efficient and cost-effective use of GIS, or from using GIS at all. Some of the obstacles might include:

• GIS software has a steep learning curve. Even when existing office personnel do learn to use GIS, they rarely can devote the time and resources necessary to achieve the level of competence needed to significantly improve the efficiency of or the breadth of services offered by the company.
  
  
• Hiring a GIS specialist is expensive. One might conclude that the answer to the steep learning curve would be to hire a specialist. Most organizations maintain profitability by having few permanent employees and contract specialists on an as-needed basis. Hiring a GIS specialist on a full time basis simply does not fit that business model.
  
  
• GIS doesn’t seem to offer any benefits over manual data collection and hand-drawn maps. Virtually all CRM firms and organizations have always used basic mapping and cartography skills. On the surface, it may seem that GIS is simply a computer-based way of performing those same tasks, and therefore would not bring any new marketable services, or allow the organization to penetrate any new markets. However, some of the most powerful and marketable analysis functions of GIS are known only to GIS professionals experienced in the applications of GIS in Cultural Resource Management.
  
  
• GIS professionals know nothing about CRM, so working with them is cumbersome, slow, and ineffective.

The Solution

Let me, Mark Neal, and Beyond Maps be your GIS department. I am a CRM professional and trained archaeologist with both Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees in Anthropology. I have been trained in the construction, use, and maintenance of geographic information systems at the University of California Santa Barbara — one of the most respected university GIS departments in the world. Many organizations have found this combination of skills to be uniquely suited to their needs. I have worked with CRM firms, institutions, municipal, state, federal, and tribal governments to provide state-of-the-art GIS services. I can make this powerful technology available to you instantly and seamlessly because I understand your business and your customer’s needs.

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• Predictive modeling.
  
  
• Conversion of historic paper maps into GIS.
  
  
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• Quality analysis of historic survey data.
  
  
• Creation of GIS layers from field maps.

How to get started with Beyond Maps

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